Danny K. Davis is not invincible but he won't lose
Opponents and would-be opponents need more ammo than his age
Chief among the reasons U.S Danny K. Davis has prevailed in the last five or six attempts to unseat him is opponents haven’t been able to level any reasons to vote for them other than they are younger than the 82-year-old Congressman. The refrain in West Side politics, where Davis’ wins are almost a given, is ‘he has been there (in Washington/Congress) long enough.
The assessment about his longevity proves to be flawed as Congressman Davis’ re-election campaigns saw opponents rarely getting even 20 percent of the vote. There also is ongoing scuttlebutt that he has promised to support at least five individuals for the seat whenever he chooses to retire. None of them apparently have the patience as all have left the political arena.
A Conyears-Ervin bid will be badly mistimed
As recently as a month ago, we saw Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin postpone an announcement about her campaign to try to replace Davis. While the announcement was stalled, Conyears-Ervin, a former state representative, continued her fundraising efforts. It was a wise move if she decides to try to get on the ballot; however, should she do that it raises a credibility question as she is on record as saying she would run if the Congressman retires. Davis has given no indication that is in the works.
Should Conyears-Ervin, the wife of 28th Ward Alderperson Jason Ervin, decide to run it would be the most ill-advised move of her career. As a candidate, she is damaged goods.
For the last several months she has been in the news for allegations of ethical violations while performing her job as city clerk. She dismissed accusations that she had staffers run personal errands, including grocery shopping, as well as planning her daughter’s birthday party-all on city time. There was enough credence to those claims that the city’s inspector general launched an investigation. This occurred under former Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration. Alderperson Ervin was considered a Lightfoot ally.
The employees who accused the treasurer of ethics violations and misuse of city resources were fired, and ultimately reached a wrongful termination settlement with the city. However, the settlement included a “gag order” and the former employees are not allowed to speak about their time in the treasurer’s office.
Conyears-Ervin should abandon any aspirations of ascending to Congress for the time being. Whether she did what she is accused of, she will need to spend an inordinate amount of time refuting the allegations instead of presenting plans and ideas to voters.
The other reality is if somehow such a run was successful, she would not be allowed-primarily because of House protocol to serve on the most important committees; and likely would not have the opportunity to introduce any meaningful legislation.
You might recall that when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, maybe better known as AOC was elected to Congress four years ago after an upset win over a longtime New York incumbent, the visibility and star she had all but disappeared.
The vocal onslaught and promises to bring change were met with the reality of being a freshman Congressperson. Today, anyone outside of her district is hard-pressed to identify any legislation she has successfully proposed, especially anything related to the New Green Deal, which she vigorously supported.
Closer to home, freshly minted Congressperson Jonathan Jackson has maintained high visibility throughout the district, but amassed a meager legislative record. That is simply the result of the traditions in Congress that almost forces first-term members to be seen and not heard
History shows us that the Seventh District race attracts roughly a half-dozen opponents to Davis. They are far more likely to draw votes away from Conyears-Ervin than Davis, even though she will have a larger campaign war chest, and brings better name recognition.
The unenlightened voter
There are legions of people who refuse to invest time in researching candidates, understanding issues, exchanging views with those they disagree with politically. Surprisingly, or maybe not so, they do show up to vote.
However, based on the conditions described above their reasons for voting are not always sound ones. Some people vote for or against a candidate based on something an equally unenlightened friend shared with them. Still others vote for or against someone based upon a personal reason that has nothing to do with how effective that candidate will be. It can be described as affinity voting-the candidate went to high school or college with the voter, or the voter likes the way the candidate looks, dresses, or myriad inconsequential reasons.
Should Conyears-Ervin run we should expect to hear comparisons to former Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. and his former wife Sandy Jackson, who served as 7th Ward alderman-once viewed as Chicago’s premier political power couple. And that will be enough for some to choose not to vote for her.
Like many pols in his generation who grew up poor and in the South, the power and prestige of being one of only 435 persons who hold a Congressional seat can be addictive and not something easily relinquished. Over the years, we have seen countless U.S. Reps and U.S. hold onto their while battling health conditions so debilitating that they couldn’t even show up for work. However, voluntarily leaving office was a remote option at best. As anyone who challenges Cong. Davis is likely to learn, the longer a member serves the more entrenched he or she becomes; and defeating that person takes gargantuan efforts and millions of dollars.