An unsuccessful recall attempt will only fortify Brandon Johnson
There are too many variables for such an effort to be successful
Even the newest readers of DePriest Digest know this is a place where Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s record and policies are routinely placed under the microscope; and the resulting image is rarely a favorable one. And regardless of whose poll is being cited Johnson emerges as the winner for having the lowest approval rating of any modern mayor.
The negative results on policy and image, along with the basement-level approval rating have embolden two state legislators to set the wheels in motion to recall the current mayor. A year ago, there was a sputtering citizens’ effort to get enough signatures on a petition to get on the ballot for a recall-the language but not the recall itself.
Recently, two Illinois state representatives - Anthony Deluca (D-Chicago Heights) and LaShawn K. Ford (D-Chicago) introduced House Bill 1084.
Here is a synopsis of the legislation
If passed the legislation would create a process for launching a recall against a Chicago mayor. Currently, there are no steps for a recall. Even though the Democrats have an overwhelming majority in the State House; whether they have an appetite for a recall, which would ultimately serve up one of their own-which Johnson claims to be- is in question.
Ford, who represents a wide swath of the West Side, has been in the legislature since 2007 and in 2019 ran unsuccessfully for mayor. Undoubtedly, many are wondering if this his subtle campaign announcement for mayor in 2017.
Special elections, which this would have to be, could rack up millions of dollars in costs. Some members of the House whose districts lie within the city might not be willing to add to Chicago’s gaping budget hole.
Chances of a successful recall are slim
If the recall language succeeds in moving through the legislature, Chicago voters will be in for the most arduous battle in Chicago mayoral history. It also will rank as one of, if not the most confusing. We will witness some Johnson opponents emerging as his supporters against a recall. It all depends on the final ballot language.
Many donors will sit the recall election out because their politics call for removing someone from office by not re-electing them. Conversely, city vendors are likely to up their campaign contributions to the incumbent for the purpose of keeping their respective contracts in place. Because of the scrutiny and court challenges the Chicago Teachers Union currently in dealing with, they will likely not be able to play the out-sized role they did in Johnson’s campaign against Paul Vallas battle. And like the Johnson-Vallas contest look for a recall election to blossom into a racial fight. And the conjecture and inuendo about who would replace Johnson should he lose factors heavily into how Chicagoans vote. When the final legislation is rolled out is when we will learn if Johnson can also be a candidate to replace himself
The nuts and bolts of it all
Regardless of how the recall language looks if the legislature passes the bill; the fight to stay in office is surely to be as intense as the campaign to get there. However, the incumbent Johnson will have the upper hand. The most critical element is having cash on hand. He has had to spend very little of the near $4 million dollars he received from the Chicago Teachers Union and the Illinois Federation of Teacher so that will be availble to stave off any recall. Surely, he will be seeking additional dollars as no campaign ever feels it has enough money.
Recall proponents won’t have a built-in war chest and will have to scrounge to finance typical campaign expenses - staff, phone banks, supplies, television and radio commercials, along with newspaper ads and social media placements, as well as incidental costs. They will need to raise millions of dollars.
Another clear Johnson advantage is a database with the contact information of thousands of volunteers-people who knocked on doors, distributed Johnson literature for months leading up to Johnson’s two percentage point win over Vallas.
The mayor’s track record of failed planks in his platform - namely the “Bring Chicago Home” initiative and the 0-50 drubbing he took when the entire city council voted against his historic $300 million property tax increase in the current budget will be fodder for the recallers. An intangible that may help the recall backers is Johnson has not endeared himself to the news media; although reporters and editors will never say the mayor’s tirades and attempts to embarrass them affects their coverage.
Johnson basically will be tethered to his fifth-floor office while those against him will show up throughout the city every day attempting to explain why Johnson’s term should be cut short.